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'That looks low to me': Nobel Prize winner issues grim warning on Iran war consequences
A Nobel Prize winner has warned there could be further spikes in the cost of oil, and it would be far worse than predicted. Paul Krugman believes estimates from experts predicting how high the cost of oil will reach could be understating just how expensive it could get. Writing in his recent Substack post, the economist suggested there is a chance that oil prices could spike much higher than either experts or Donald Trump's administration will admit. Krugman claimed, "Given time to adjust, the world can conserve oil in many different ways. For example, gas mileage roughly doubled in the decades that followed the 70s oil shocks — and that was before hybrid and electric vehicles. In the long run, the world economy could make do without Persian Gulf oil, at minimal cost in terms of global GDP."But in the long run we are all dead. In the short run, the economic impact of a sustained loss of Gulf oil could be very ugly. In fact, it would have to get ugly to persuade the world to buy a lot less oil.""I’ve seen some alarmists warn that a long war in the Gulf could lead to oil at $150 a barrel. That looks low to me." Though Krugman's opinion may be a rude awakening for some, the economist believes change will only come if the price hike persuades people to give up driving. He wrote, "Around 20 percent of the world’s normal flow of oil is bottled up inside the Strait of Hormuz — and as we’ve seen in the past day, even tankers and oil facilities inside the Strait are vulnerable to attack. If this blockade persists, it will be a much worse shock to world oil supplies than the 1973 embargo, the 1979 Iranian revolution, or the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.""So what happens if the Strait remains closed for months? It’s a matter of supply and demand. If the quantity of oil supplied to world markets can’t rise — which, as far as we can tell, it won’t until the mullahs decide to let tankers through again — the price of oil will have to rise high enough to reduce the quantity demanded.""And how high would that price have to be? It would have to be high enough to persuade drivers to stop driving, trucks to stop trucking, airlines to stop flying.""In other words, the price of oil would have to rise enough to cause a global economic crisis even though the world is much less oil-dependent than it used to be."
Trump is crippling his war sales-pitch with repeated goof-up: MS NOW
Donald Trump has repeatedly called his Iran war an “excursion,” which drew rolled-eyes on MS NOW on Friday morning, with one host claiming the president doesn't seem to know the true meaning of the word. The “Morning Joe” segment began with a supercut of the president making statements like, “This is an excursion. We figured oil prices would go up, which they will. They'll also come down,” and later claiming, “We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil.” That led co-host, Willie Geist to suggest, “President Trump repeatedly calling the war with Iran a 'little excursion'; a war that has killed American troops, injured about 150 of them, destabilized the Middle East and driven oil over $100 a barrel. A little excursion is kind of like a half-day snorkeling trip you book on your vacation to the Bahamas, not a war with Iran.”“In its definition of an excursion, [is] ‘a short, organized pleasure trip a la snorkeling, often lasting a few hours. Incursion, a sudden, often hostile entrance or invasion into a territory or place’,” Jonathan Lemire read to his colleague.“The smart money would say that one of President Trump's advisors used the word incursion with him: ‘Sir, it's an incursion. It's going to be a short military action.’ I mean, it may not be that short, but that's the word that he was given,” he explained.“He heard it as ‘excursion’ and no one has had the guts to correct him. And now he has said it over and over and over. And as you say, Willie, excursion, whether he means to or not, really diminishes the stakes in the lives lost in this conflict.” - YouTube youtu.be
France returns a sacred drum looted during the colonial era to Ivory Coast
France has returned a looted sacred talking drum to Ivory Coast, marking the first official restitution of precious artifacts from France to the west African nation after they were looted during the colonial era
German museum celebrates famed Japanese artist Kusama in vast new exhibit
The renowned Museum Ludwig in Germany is celebrating its 50th anniversary by opening a nearly five-month exhibit with more than 300 works of the famed Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama
Trump White House split by 'tug-of-war' as insiders panic over Iran fallout: Reuters
Donald Trump's Iran war is fracturing his inner circle, with fierce internal battles over whether to escalate military operations or declare victory and exit—a conflict that White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt attempted to suppress as being "based on gossip and speculation."According to a Reuters exclusive by journalists Nandita Bose, Matt Spetalnick, and Humeyra Pamuk, Trump administration officials are locked in a "complex tug-of-war" driving the president's shifting public statements on the conflict. Three weeks into the war, aides are still debating when and how to declare victory even as the conflict spreads across the Middle East.The irony is stark: Trump returned to office promising to avoid "stupid" military interventions. Instead, he plunged the nation into a war that has rattled global financial markets, disrupted international oil trade and angered his MAGA base.Economic advisers from the Treasury Department and National Economic Council have warned Trump that oil shocks and rising gasoline prices could rapidly erode public support for the war. Political advisers—including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Deputy Chief James Blair—are reinforcing this message, urging Trump to define victory narrowly and signal the operation is limited and nearly finished.But hawks are pushing the opposite direction. Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, along with media commentator Mark Levin, are urging Trump to sustain military pressure on Iran.A third force complicates matters further: Trump's populist base. Strategist Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson are pressing Trump and his aides to avoid another prolonged Middle East conflict.The result is strategic incoherence. "He is allowing the hawks to believe the campaign continues, wants markets to believe the war might end soon and his base to believe escalation will be limited," one Trump adviser admitted. In other words, Trump is telling everyone what they want to hear while committing to nothing—a dangerous posture in one of the world's most volatile and economically critical regions.You can read more here.
The kill line v Chinamaxxing: a window into how China and the US see each other
In China, one social media trend hangs on the idea that a life in the US is always one step from disaster, while another in the US has gen Z revelling in Chinese lifestyle hacksAcross two online worlds that are normally splintered, over the last few months there has been a mirroring of sorts. On TikTok and Instagram, young people are diving into the joys of Chinese culture – from drinking hot water to playing mahjong – all under the banner of “Chinamaxxing”. On the Chinese internet, however, the US is losing its decades-long grip on soft power, and is instead being replaced by a darker trend: the kill line.The kill line is a dangerous place to be. In gaming, the term refers to the point at which a player’s strength is so depleted that one more blow could lead to total wipeout. In China, the term refers to the risks that come with daily life in the US. Continue reading...
Mar 12, 2026
UK government axes flagship global health project
‘Invasive’ AI-led mass surveillance in Africa violating freedoms, warn experts
Countries across the continent have spent more than $2bn on Chinese tracking technology that is not ‘necessary or proportionate’, new report findsThe rapid expansion of AI-powered mass-surveillance systems across Africa is violating citizens’ right to privacy and having a chilling effect on society, according to experts on human rights and emerging technologies.At least $2bn (£1.5bn) has been spent by 11 African governments on Chinese-built surveillance technology that recognises faces and monitors movements, according to a new report by the Institute of Development Studies, which warns that national security is being used to justify implementing these systems with little regulation. Continue reading...
A young girl is knocked over at Tokyo crossing – what’s behind Japan’s ‘bumping’ trend?
Viral video of girl being shoved by fellow pedestrian has reignited debate over butsukari – with experts blaming stress and gender dynamicsIt starts out as a heartwarming clip. A young girl, clearly delighted to be in Tokyo, beams as she makes a peace sign to the camera. Seconds later, she is shoved to the ground from behind by a woman wearing a surgical mask. The assailant doesn’t skip a beat, striding out of shot of the clip filmed by the girl’s mother.This was no accidental clash of shoulders in a crowded place, but one of the most visible examples of a spate of butsukari otoko – “bumping man” – shoving incidents in Japan that experts attribute to a combination of gender dynamics and the stresses of modern life. Continue reading...
Asia scrambles to confront energy crisis unleashed by Iran war – with no end in sight
From fuel caps to four-day work weeks, the Middle East conflict has left the world’s top crude oil importing region desperate to shore up suppliesDonald Trump has scrambled in recent days to reassure the world that the economic impact of his war on Iran can be contained.Sure, one of the most important waterways in global trade has, in effect, been shut for almost two weeks – but it might reopen before long. In the meantime, US oil-related sanctions on “some countries” will be lifted. And besides, the entire conflict could be over soon. Continue reading...
China’s rubber-stamp parliament set to approve ‘ethnic unity’ law
New legislation will require schools to use Mandarin by default, taking priority over minority ethnic languages such as Tibetan, Uyghur and MongolianChina’s National People’s Congress (NPC), the state legislature, will vote on Thursday on a suite of new laws agreed at this year’s annual two sessions gathering, including a piece of legislation that will diminish the role of minority ethnic languages in the education system.NPC delegates are expected to approve a new ethnic unity law, along with a new environmental code and the 15th five-year plan, the economic planning document for 2026-2030. Delegates have spent the last week debating Beijing’s proposed bills, which they are all but certain to approve. The NPC, which is often described as a rubber-stamp parliament, has never rejected an item on its agenda. Continue reading...
At least 17 killed after drone strikes school in Sudan
Strike in Shukeiri killed schoolgirls, teachers and healthcare workers in latest incident in three-year warAt least 17 people, most of them schoolgirls, were killed on Wednesday when an explosive-laden drone blamed on Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces struck a secondary school and a health care centre.At least 10 people were wounded in the strike in the village of Shukeiri in the White Nile province, according to Dr Musa al-Majeri, director of Douiem hospital, the nearest major medical facility to the village. Continue reading...
Ex-rapper Balendra Shah set to be Nepal PM after party’s landslide election win
Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra party secures thumping victory in first poll since gen Z protests that toppled government Balendra Shah, the rapper turned politician and popular figurehead of a gen Z revolution, looks set to become Nepal’s next prime minister after his party won by an unprecedented margin.Shah, known widely as Balen, and his Rastriya Swatantra party (RSP) secured a rare landslide victory in the first election since youth-led protests during which dozens were killed and the former government was toppled. Continue reading...
