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'Big escalation' hits Trump as oil flow sees 'enormous drop off' ahead of midterms: expert
With the midterms 20 days away, the Trump administration was confronted Wednesday with a “big escalation” in its war against Iran, geopolitical expert Brett Erickson warned, one that could soon send oil prices skyrocketing.Early Wednesday, Tehran claimed that it had sunk a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz after it had struck a naval mine, the Associated Press reported, the first such instance of a sinking by sea mine. Erickson called the development a “big escalation,” while also flagging new data that suggested an oil price surge may be imminent.“Data from Kpler published today shows an ENORMOUS drop off in the amount of oil transiting Hormuz per day, with the last three days only moving 10M barrels of oil COMBINED,” Erickson wrote Wednesday in a statement published on social media.“While these numbers will likely be revised upwards over the coming days… There’s certainly been a sharp decline in volume as a result of Iran’s strikes on TWENTY SEVEN vessels in the months of October alone. This includes the container vessel struck earlier today.”The significant reduction in oil flow through the strait was corroborated by Al Jazeera, which in a Wednesday report noted that “only 2.9 million barrels of oil were carried through the waterway on Oct. 11, the lowest level this month.” The shift marked a dramatic reversal of recent trends, with Middle East crude exports nearly rebounding to pre-Iran war levels in early October.The 2.9 million barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz Sunday stood in stark contrast to the pre-war daily average of 17.1 million barrels, with oil prices already climbing Wednesday morning by 89 cents over Tuesday, according to Al Jazeera.“While the Iranian claims that this vessel struck a mine are unconfirmed, it DOES appear that the vessel is in fact sinking,” Erickson said, citing unverified photos of a cargo ship taking on water. “This marks a notable escalation.”Iran’s October escalation was predicted as far back as August by foreign policy expert Trita Parsi, who warned at the time that Trump’s strategy to “push the [Iran] conflict out of the minds of voters” would likely backfire, and that Iran would strategically escalate just ahead of the U.S. midterms.NEW: Data from Kpler published today shows an ENORMOUS drop off in the amount of oil transiting Hormuz per day, with the last three days only moving 10M barrels of oil COMBINED.While these numbers will likely be revised upwards over the coming days…There’s certainly been a sharp decline in volume as a result of Iran’s strikes on TWENTY SEVEN vessels in the months of October alone. This includes the container vessel struck earlier today.— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) October 14, 2026
Trump boasts about his plans for 'our new and beautiful Greenland' in late-night post
President Donald Trump once again claimed ownership of Greenland in a late-night Truth Social boast.The post, at about 12:17 a.m. EDT Wednesday, described “Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration” getting ready to begin in “our new and beautiful Greenland.” Greenland is a self-governing territory of Denmark, not a U.S. territory.Trump’s message read in full:“Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland! There are Experts that are saying that the amount of easily available Oil is far greater than that of almost any land, anywhere in the World and, even more importantly, from a Security Purpose in the Defense and Offense of both the United States of America, and Europe, is second to none. Any future attack on the United States will have to come across Greenland, where our Defense will routinely knock down drones, missiles, or any other form of weapon not yet even conceived. It gives us time, location, and sightline, like nowhere else in the World! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”Trump did not name the experts or say which exploration projects he meant.Last month, Trump announced a security agreement with Denmark and Greenland, signed Sept. 22 at the United Nations, that expands the U.S. military presence on the island. Trump said it gives the United States “permanent control” over Greenland’s security. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the deal recognizes Danish sovereignty and Greenlanders’ right to self-determination. Danish and Greenlandic lawmakers must still ratify it, according to ABC News.
'Betrayal': Trump leaves GOP exposed with five-day 'gift to adversary'
President Donald Trump has spent the past five days doing favors for Russian President Vladimir Putin, but with the midterm elections just three weeks away, Republicans are left with the political fallout.The 80-year-old U.S. president is renewing his scandal-plagued relationship with the reviled Russian dictator as American voters begin casting early ballots, and Axios reported that his moves haven't gone over well on Capitol Hill, where GOP senators called the arrangement a “betrayal” and “a gift to our adversary.”After a phone call with Putin, Trump announced a deal Friday to let millions of tons of Russian diesel flow onto global markets, loosening sanctions meant to cut off Moscow’s war funding. The next day, he tore into Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over Kyiv’s strikes on Russian refineries and called for Ukraine to replace its leader.On Sunday, Trump caught Zelensky off guard by declaring an immediate “energy ceasefire.” Russia has kept hammering Ukraine’s power grid since then, with no visible consequences from Washington. On Monday, Trump brushed aside months of intelligence-based reporting that Russia had been giving Iran information on U.S. military assets, and on Tuesday, he doubled down on the diesel deal and waved off concerns that the money could fund Russia’s war machine.The White House stood by the deal, despite GOP skepticism.“The President’s diesel deal will help lower prices for farmers, truckers, and families across the nation as he simultaneously urges both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to stop strikes against refineries, which are driving up costs and hurting American consumers,” spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement.Energy analysts doubt the deal will do much to lower fuel prices, which spiked because of the Iran war. Meanwhile, the U.S. is breaking from its NATO allies just as Russia steps up a campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks and drone incursions across Europe.A January YouGov poll found that 81 percent of Trump’s own 2024 voters view Putin unfavorably, but Trump stood by the Russian leader anyway on Monday. “I think, actually, Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelensky,” he told reporters.The timing is bad for a party already watching its polling numbers sink, and losing control of Congress could stall Trump’s agenda and open his administration to years of investigations and subpoenas.The president doesn’t seem worried. In a Truth Social post Tuesday, Trump wrote: “I’m not running in the Elections, I’ve already won, IN A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE.”
Joni Mitchell becomes US citizen: ‘A journey that began 62 years ago’
Canada-born singer-songwriter, 82, posts footage of citizenship ceremony to InstagramJoni Mitchell has become a US citizen, after first moving to the country in the mid-1960s. The Canada-born singer-songwriter, 82, posted footage of her citizenship ceremony on her Instagram account, along with a photo of her next to an American flag, accompanied by the caption: “A journey that began 62 years ago.”It means that Mitchell can now vote in US elections, something that she had complained she wasn’t able to do. Continue reading...
Leaders of India’s Cockroach party jailed for violating ban on protest site
Ashutosh Ranka and Saurav Das will spend spend five days in prison for entering Delhi’s Jantar Mantar – a historic protest site that has been closed by authoritiesWhy Indian voters are on the streetsTwo leaders of India’s youth-led Cockroach movement have been sent to jail for five days for violating a ban on protests at a site in central Delhi.A court ordered that Ashutosh Ranka and Saurav Das, leaders of the Cockroach Janata party (CJP) movement, spend five days in Delhi’s Tihar prison for jumping over police barricades, holding up slogans and waving the Indian flag at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar. Continue reading...
Kimberly Guilfoyle watched her downfall on muted TV in home lined with self-portraits: WSJ
Kimberly Guilfoyle's final days as President Donald Trump's ambassador to Greece played out under the gaze of a very familiar face.Visitors to Jefferson House, the ambassador's residence in Athens that she decorated with large self-portraits, saw Guilfoyle peering past them at a television set on mute that was airing coverage of her growing political troubles, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. The report came hours after the White House announced it was asking her to step down.The ouster followed a string of Journal investigations. The first, published late last month, found Guilfoyle had been promoting a Greek construction company while working closely with its top lobbyist. A second revealed text messages in which she asked Trump donor Eric Deters for $100,000 ahead of her confirmation hearing last year. A third, published Saturday, detailed private jet flights and stays at luxury European hotels provided by shipping magnate Nikolas Tsakos.Behind the scenes, Guilfoyle fought to keep her post. She placed calls to Trump administration officials and prominent Trump allies, frequently in the early morning hours Athens time, seeking support. After the Deters texts came out, she told White House officials the messages were AI-generated, The Journal reported. Officials did not buy it, and The Journal said its reporters confirmed the texts were authentic.She also hunted for the source of the leaks, pointing the finger at embassy staffers and her own security team, and reached out to Breitbart News Washington bureau chief Matthew Boyle for help lobbying the Trump administration, according to the report.Publicly, she kept up appearances. On Monday, she shared a photo with Spain's ambassador to Greece marking his country's national day, captioned "Feliz Fiesta Nacional!" She also posted birthday wishes to Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, on Instagram. As late as Tuesday morning, she was telling associates she would weather the storm.Trump, however, had run out of patience. People who spoke with him said he was irritated by how blatant the accusations seemed and bothered that Guilfoyle was profiting off his presidency. Senior aides feared the headlines would reinforce perceptions of self-dealing just weeks before the midterm elections.Guilfoyle announced her resignation on social media, calling the allegations false and thanking Trump. The post was later edited to add a line of gratitude to the people of Greece for welcoming her "with open arms."
Trump's 'problematic' Russia deal unmasked by expert: 'Not going to move the needle'
President Donald Trump's deal to buy Russian diesel fuel ahead of the midterms is more bluster than it is substantive, according to one expert. Last week, Trump announced that the U.S. would buy more than 300,000 tons of diesel this month as an attempt to lower gas prices ahead of the midterm elections. The move was announced at a time when the national average price for a gallon of diesel fuel was above $6.20, according to figures from AAA. The deal has also sparked significant pushback from Republican lawmakers in Congress. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said on CNN that the deal, while lucrative for Russia, likely won't have the significant and sustained impact on U.S. fuel prices that Trump hopes. "I'm very skeptical that Russia simply has this amount of diesel sitting by," De Haan said, noting that Ukraine has been attacking Russia's oil infrastructure since the beginning of the war in 2022. "We've seen long, long lines for diesel in Russia. So I think that's problematic, whether the supply exists." Gas prices have become a focal point of the second Trump administration. During the 2024 campaign, Trump promised to lower gas prices as part of his efforts to reduce the overall cost of living. However, stubborn inflation combined with Trump's decision to attack Iran has caused fuel prices to spike. De Haan noted that the amount of oil Trump is buying, while nominally large, is a drop in the bucket compared to the needed intervention to stem the rising tide of gas prices. "The amount of diesel that we are said to be importing from Russia over time is less than a week's supply," he said. "This initial 300,000 tons is only about a day and a half of what we are producing as a nation on a daily basis. So there's just a lot of concern. Ultimately, this is not going to move the needle much. Again, only a day and a half of supply. This is not something that's going to have a material impact. It may have a psychological impact until the market unpacks whether or not this diesel is actually coming from Russia."
Trump taunted as economic lifeline named new ‘explicit target’ for US adversary: report
Middle East crude exports have nearly rebounded to where they stood before the U.S. war against Iran, thanks largely to what Reuters called a “vital lifeline” — but on Sunday, Tehran named that lifeline its new “explicit target” as a senior official appeared to “taunt” President Donald Trump, Al Jazeera reported.That lifeline has been ship-to-ship transfers using corridors along the coast of Oman in an effort to bypass Iranian interference in the Strait of Hormuz, with coordination and protection of the U.S. military. On Sunday night, however, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, vowed that shipping through the alternate route would soon come to an end.“You are smuggling, but the strait is under Iran’s control, and we manage it,” Rezaei said.Al Jazeera’s Maziar Motamedi went on to report that Rezaei named the ship-to-ship transfer system as “an explicit target for Tehran,” and characterized Rezaei’s comments as a “taunt aimed at Trump, who hailed energy exports at times reaching pre-war levels over recent weeks.”“Rezaei appeared to give the impression that Iran wants to have lasting authority over Hormuz, and promised a harsh response if Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure were attacked again,” Motamedi wrote.The average cost for a barrel of crude oil reached its peak in early April at nearly $113. It plummeted to its lowest point since the war began at just under $69 in early July — shortly after the United States agreed to its short-lived peace agreement with Iran on June 14 — before ramping back up to nearly $106 last month. As of Monday, the average cost for a barrel of crude stood at just under $94, though it risks climbing again should Iran prove successful in disrupting the alternative route along the coast of Oman.“Tehran says shipping will be disrupted so long as the US continues its choking naval blockade against Iran, which has also stepped up its efforts to counter efforts by Arab states to export oil,” Motamedi continued. “At least 15 ships are believed to have been targeted in October so far, according to [Windward].”
‘High’ likelihood Trump gearing up for drastic — and imminent — escalation: Fox News
The chances that President Donald Trump authorizes a significant military escalation in the Middle East — and soon — are “relatively high,” Fox News’ Trey Yingst said Monday as the White House weighs its response to a recent strike on a major U.S. ally.On Saturday, Yemen’s Houthi militants carried out a deadly attack on Saudi Arabia, striking the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and killing at least 12 people and injuring more than 300. Trump told reporters he was considering joining Saudi Arabia in retaliating against the Houthis, and despite skepticism from one expert, Yingst said he expected Trump to follow through.“The question now is how Saudi Arabia will respond and if the United States could be involved,” Yingst said, reporting from Tel Aviv, Israel. “The chances [that the United States gets involved militarily] are relatively high just given recent history. The Saudis are asking for support, and that support is going to come in a variety of different ways: one has to do with intelligence, and the other, military action.”Yingst went on to list the variety of ways the U.S. military could directly strike Houthi militants, who have made significant territorial gains in recent weeks and have strengthened their hold on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical global shipping chokepoint in the Red Sea, much like the Strait of Hormuz.Fox News’ Rachel Campos-Duffy questioned whether the deep unpopularity of Trump’s war against Iran would factor into the White House’s response.“We're in a political season, and the war is not very popular among a lot of people,” Campos-Duffy said. “Do you think that will impact how — and to what scale — the American military gets involved?”Yingst suggested that, despite Trump’s claims that the midterms had no bearing on his decisions regarding his war in the Middle East, it was impossible to know for sure.“It certainly would be a question for the president as he will be the person who decides, ultimately, if U.S. strikes move forward,” Yingst said.
Trump sparks new ‘catastrophe’ trying to fix ‘biggest single mistake’ of career: analysts
In a bid to navigate the “biggest single mistake” of President Donald Trump’s two terms in office, the president has sparked a new “complete catastrophe,” a panel of journalists argued Monday on MS NOW.“This war with Iran is going to prove to be the biggest single mistake of Donald Trump's two terms in office,” said David Rohde, MS NOW senior national security reporter. “The Saudi Arabian government could fall there — it's a disaster for this country and it's extraordinary what's happening, just the stakes here every day.”A cascade of attacks has erupted across the Middle East in recent days amid Trump’s deeply unpopular war against Iran, a conflict that has kept U.S. fuel prices elevated. However, Trump has increasingly blamed the Russo-Ukrainian war for elevated fuel prices.On Sunday, reports emerged that the Trump administration was threatening to cut Ukraine off from U.S. intelligence to compel the country to stop attacking Russian energy infrastructure. That threat, argued The Insider’s Michael Weiss, would only make the Trump administration’s problems worse.“Ukraine has been striking Russian oil refineries with U.S. intelligence. We have been encouraging them to do it as one of the cards that they can play,” Weiss said. “All of a sudden, a grinding halt to this policy, and now we threaten to take the one thing away that we continue to give them, so it's a complete catastrophe.”Weiss also argued that the move to cut Ukraine off from U.S. intelligence flew in the face of recent Trump administration claims.“And by the way, it was only about a week or two ago I was hearing a lot of triumphalism: 'We have opened the Strait of Hormuz, everything has stabilized!'” Weiss said. “Yeah, the Strait of Hormuz is open as long as our naval blockade is in place.”
Sparks fly after Darline Graham's latest debate gaffe: 'So stunningly unqualified'
Sparks flew Sunday after Darline Graham's latest gaffe during the South Carolina Senate debate. Graham faced off against Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, during which she was asked about President Donald Trump's decision to start the war against Iran. One of the answers Graham gave caused a stir on social media. "They're being strangled economically, and no one will trade with them," Graham said. "I am proud that I helped get the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 over the finish line in the Senate with overwhelming bipartisan support ... it gives [the president] the tools to end the war through economic sanctions. And, why in the world would we stop now when they are still dangerous and we are close to ending the war?"Graham's comments seem to fly in the face of President Donald Trump's assertions that the Iranian military had been "completely decimated" after recent U.S. strikes. Political analysts reacted to Graham's claim on social media. "So stunningly unqualified. What [are] we doing, people?" Marc Polymeropoulos, an MS NOW analyst, posted on X. "21 American lives lost should be enough. This war needs to end," Andrews posted on her personal X account. "Hey, look. It's another Graham who loves forever wars," Hemant Mehta, political commentator and "Jeopardy!" champion, posted on X. "I saw gas at $5 a gallon the other day. That’s one reason," Liz Mair, a political communications expert, posted on X. "Well, Dips--- Darlene, because Trump is losing his war with Iran and we shouldn’t have to sacrifice more US service members just to save Trump’s pride," Polly Sigh, a writer and political commentator, posted on X. Darline Graham on Iran War: Why in the world would we stop now? https://t.co/0DcIrvXpU5— Acyn (@Acyn) October 11, 2026
'Dead in the water': Analyst sounds 'dire' alarm as cracks appear in Trump's oil ceasefire
President Donald Trump's announced ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia on Sunday carries some significant risks and shows that the president's efforts to make lasting peace between the two countries may be "dead in the water," according to one political analyst. Trump wrote on Truth Social that "there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE (sic) in the War between Russia and Ukraine" and that "both parties have agreed." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the announcement as a surprise to him, and told Ukrainian citizens in a nightly address that Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure were ongoing despite Trump's announcement. Jill Dougherty, a journalist and expert on Russia, sounded that alarm about the announced ceasefire during an interview with CNN's Frederika Whitfield on "CNN Newsroom." "So this situation is quite dire, and it's very delicate for Zelenskyy to be diplomatic and yet stand up for his own country," Dougherty said. "It's very, very difficult right now."Dougherty noted that the international community is not taking the announced ceasefire seriously. It was announced at a time when Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin had agreed for Russia to sell diesel fuel to the U.S. in an effort to reduce costs ahead of the consequential midterms. Zelenskyy blasted the diesel deal during an interview on Sunday, saying it would give Putin more money that he can use to escalate Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. Dougherty added that the ceasefire announcement also revealed how Trump's efforts to make peace between the two countries have failed. "Remember, Mr. Trump, years ago at the beginning, said, 'I will solve this in 24 hours.' And so now it's been a very long time. He hasn't solved it, and he has to begin to show that there is some progress," Dougherty said. "But right now, those talks that have been taking place ... just a couple of days ago in Miami, seem truly dead in the water. And so to say there's a ceasefire, maybe that sounds good domestically, but nobody seems to be taking it at all as the truth."
