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A bombshell CIA memo distributed to administration policymakers the week revealed that Iran is in a far stronger military and economic position than President Trump has publicly claimed — directly contradicting the president's rosy assessments about the state of the war.According to a Washington Post report, the leaked classified intelligence assessment found that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing severe economic hardship — significantly longer than the White House has suggested.More critically, the Post is reporting, the CIA determined that Tehran retains substantial ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment. Iran has maintained approximately 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, according to a U.S. official familiar with the assessment.The intelligence community found evidence that the Iranian regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began, the report notes.The CIA's more sobering assessment stands in sharp contrast to Trump's public statements. On Wednesday, Trump claimed Iran's missile capabilities had been devastated, telling reporters: "Their missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had."The president's claim that Iran retains only 18-19 percent of its original missile inventory directly contradicts the intelligence community's findings that Tehran maintains around 70-75 percent.One U.S. official who spoke to the Post suggested the CIA estimate may even be optimistic about Iran's vulnerability. "The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance" inside Iran."Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars," the official told the Post and suggested that Iran could endure prolonged economic hardship far longer than the administration has publicly indicated.Three current and one former U.S. official confirmed the intelligence assessment's outlines to the Post, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

Major energy companies are reaping enormous profits from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz stalemate triggered by Donald Trump's war on Iran, with European oil giants reporting dramatic earnings surges while American producers sit on the sidelines, the New York Times is reporting.British energy giant Shell reported robust first-quarter profits Thursday, with adjusted earnings soaring 24 percent to $6.92 billion — more than twice what the company earned in the previous quarter and significantly higher than analyst expectations.In a statement, Shell's chief executive, Wael Sawan, attributed the windfall to an "unprecedented disruption in global energy markets," with oil prices briefly trading above $126 a barrel last week.Shell is not alone in profiting from the conflict. Britain's BP more than doubled its first-quarter profit to $3.2 billion from the previous quarter, driven by superior oil trading and elevated prices. French oil company TotalEnergies reported quarterly net income of $5.4 billion and announced it would raise its dividend and double its share buybacks, the Times is reporting.According to the Times' Gregory Schmidt, that stands in sharp contrast to American oil producers who are reporting declining profits despite elevated prices. Exxon Mobil reported $4.2 billion in first-quarter earnings — down 46 percent from a year earlier — while Chevron's quarterly profit slid to $2.2 billion, a 37 percent drop year-over-year. The Times report adds the caveat that the companies attributed the declines to accounting adjustments and paper losses they said would be unwound in coming months as gas prices stay high.Exxon Mobil and Chevron — the two largest American oil producers — announced Friday they have no plans to increase oil drilling to capitalize on higher gas prices, a decision that suggests the companies are skeptical about the longevity of the price spike or wary of backlash over profiteering during wartime, the Times is reporting.

Turmoil and violence rocks state after prime minister Narendra Modi’s party claimed victory in legislative electionTensions have been high in the Indian state of West Bengal after a top political aide from Narendra Modi’s party was shot dead in the street and hundreds were arrested as violence broke out following elections this week.The prime minister’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) claimed victory in the West Bengal elections on Monday, defeating Trinamool Congress (TMC), which had ruled over the state legislature for 15 years. Continue reading...

According to MS NOW national security analyst David Rohde, what is known about the rumored one-page memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran to halt the war is less than being advertised and the advantages still lie with the war-torn country.Appearing on “Morning Joe,” Rohde praised the work of the negotiators but also claimed that the increasingly desperate American president is backing off many of his earlier demands which plays into the hands of Iran’s leadership.Addressing questions from co-host Jonathan Lemire, Rohde explained, “I just think flat out this: I just want to call it a 30-day, one page agreement is a win for Iran. It's a huge win. They have stood up to the United States. And we can talk about that in more detail.”“I keep getting told that the Iranian and Israeli officials are saying there's deep divides inside the Iranian government, but American officials are telling me that that's not true, that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is in firm control, firmer control than they were before the war. And one congressional official just called it a military dictatorship. And I fear that this pursuit of somehow moderates or other people is not really there, that they're being told these things [and] the administration, they believe it.”“And lastly, this one-page agreement is not a peace deal,” he asserted and then repeated, “This is not a peace deal. This is an extension of a ceasefire that several weeks ago, the president said there was no end of the ceasefire. The president keeps capitulating. He said before, you know, this is like several weeks ago, he's like, ‘You know, we're going to have a ceasefire for two weeks.’ And when that ends, he's like, ‘Actually, the ceasefire will continue with no end date.’ And then the pinnacle, pivotal thing was this: this Project Freedom to open the Strait of Hormuz by force. That was the most aggressive, I think, and the most effective move by the U.S. military; it worked. And then he calls it off after 24 hours. And so that's again, a huge win for Iran.” - YouTube youtu.be

Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul admitted he was startled that Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared the war with Iran over at a time when hostilities continued and no agreement is in place in particular with regard to future nuclear capabilities.Speaking with the hosts of “Morning Joe,” McFaul noted Rubio’s remark that “The Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation. I'm not going to, you know - we're not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace. What the president would prefer is a deal.”“I’ve got to tell you, honestly, I was completely shocked by what Secretary Rubio said yesterday,” he admitted. “When I saw it on some feed, I couldn't believe it that he was brought — and whether he works at the White House or State Department, it's kind of confusing, right? But there he was, alone, not with the president, by the way, declaring the end of the war that they launched without achieving any of those objectives that Joe [Scarborough] outlined from the centerpiece; none of them, and especially on the nuclear weapons deal. That they've got nothing but a commitment to negotiate in the future. After a one-page memorandum, a memorandum of understanding.”“This is a an epic defeat,” he stated. “In fact, I'm going to make a prediction: I think it's so epic that they're going to reverse it, because they're going to look at this and say, we cannot defend this. And the president's going to change his mind again.” - YouTube youtu.be

An offhand comment about the war in Iran by Vice President JD Vance during a speech in Iowa on Tuesday set off a chorus of harsh criticism on MS NOW on Wednesday morning.The vice president spoke at a manufacturing facility during a rally to boost the candidacy of Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and, while downplaying the economic devastation being visited on US consumers by the war, he awkwardly admitted, "We also know that a lot of our farmers are struggling with high fertilizer prices. I'm aware of that. As the president of the United States has said, we got a little blip in the Middle East. We gotta take care of some business on the foreign policy side."The panel on “Morning Joe” was quick to pounce on Vance’s dismissive comments.Co-host Willie Gest, speaking with conservative columnist David French, prompted his guest with, “We had two days ago the president of the United States calling this a ‘mini war. ‘Yesterday you had Vice President Vance calling this a blip. I think everyone who's lost a family member in this war, or who's now paying $4.50 a gallon on national average, or much more in many states, would consider it much more than a blip. They're trying to sort of minimize and diminish the war and in many ways, wish it away.”“You know, it's very clear at this point that it looks like Trump was essentially sold a bill of goods that he thought, and he keeps using the Venezuela comparison, we've heard it that he thought what he was getting was going to be a short and glorious and victorious military operation and he hadn't thought this through," French noted.Co-host Joe Scarborough turned the conversation back to Vance’s remark.“Over 100 school children being killed the first day of the war is a blip, up to maybe 10,000, 15,000 Iranians being killed, JD Vance is calling a blip,” he recited. “You have JD Vance calling a blip entire communities in Lebanon being wiped off the face of the earth. I mean, how would JD Vance feel if his community that he grew up in didn't have a building left standing? That's what's happening in Lebanon, all across Lebanon, because of this, quote, ‘blip.’”“That's what's happening in Iran because of this blip,” he added. “And as you say, people across the world are paying for this day in and day out with an economy that's getting worse. And of course, I guess only people like me worry about spending money and the national debt, but this war has already cost us $250 billion at minimum.”“If this is what JD Vance calls a, quote, ‘blip,’ well, then JD Vance is not a serious person. He's not a compassionate person. He's certainly — the lack of humanity calling this something that caused this much suffering a blip speaks volumes.” - YouTube youtu.be

President Donald Trump's legacy hinges on an issue he has no interest in addressing, according to one of his biographers. Journalist Michael Wolff argued during a new episode of the "Inside Trump's Head" podcast, co-hosted by Nico Hines, the Daily Beast’s global editorial director, that Trump's war in Iran is shaping up to end a lot like the oil crisis that plagued former President Jimmy Carter long after he left office. Wolff noted that Americans have become increasingly sensitive to rising gas prices resulting from the war, similar to the crisis Carter faced when the former Iranian regime fell, he added. At the same time, Trump has failed to pay attention to the changing nature of modern warfare, Wolff argued. Not only could that cost the U.S. a decisive victory in Iran, but it could also make Trump a footnote in history. "So the lesson that everyone should have been learning if they paid attention to Ukraine — which Donald Trump was not doing, was not interested in doing, and rather stubbornly refused to do — is that the nature of warfare was changing," Wolff said. Wolff added that Trump's team inside the White House has no clue how to respond to the crisis that the president has created. "Everybody within the white House and within the Trump political team is aware that they don't know what to do about this," Wolff said. "They literally do not know what to do. They don't know how to get us out of the war, and they don't know how to manage this on a political basis."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio showed an impressive command of the issues when going to bat for the Trump administration at his press conference on Tuesday, former George W. Bush strategist Mark McKinnon told MS NOW's Katy Tur on Tuesday, but it won't be enough to salvage the administration's credibility.During the speech, Rubio — who in recent months has been eyed more intensely for another presidential run — did his best to justify the president's decisions in the Iran war, and insist that the United States was on track for a strategic victory."Mark, there's been a lot of talk lately about 2028," said Tur. "What's going to happen after Donald Trump leaves the scene? And the two men that get talked about the most in the Republican Party are Marco Rubio and JD Vance. And there are real questions about whether JD Vance is likable enough to win an election, and a lot more and a lot louder whispers about Marco Rubio. What did you see today?""Well, three things I'd say," said McKinnon. "Number one, it's significant that they've rolled out Marco Rubio to explain something that nobody else in the administration has been able to very clearly, compellingly explain. Number two, watching him, he's a really good explainer. I mean, he's an adult. He's really wired on foreign policy. I used to cover his foreign policy events years ago, and when he was heading up the committee, he knows what he's talking about. But thirdly, I'd also say, if you're explaining in politics, you're losing. That was a lot of explaining and not a lot of clarity.""Yeah, that's a really good point," said Tur. "You'd have to imagine that if they put him out there in the beginning ahead of all this, or maybe had him go and attempt diplomacy with our allies to get him on board, whether we'd be in a different situation, Mark.""No question about it," agreed McKinnon. "And I again, I say watching him today, you see how effective he is. He's a great communicator. You know, he knows diplo-speak really well. You could tell that he'd be good dealing with foreign adversaries and allies, maybe better than, you know, a couple of guys that don't have any foreign policy experience. And Witkoff and Jared.""So again, I think you make a great point," he said. "Had he been involved up front, not only in the negotiations, not only the decision, I don't know what he was involved in the decision, but in articulating it with our allies, I think we'd be in much better place than we are today." - YouTube youtu.be